Abstract

The rapid population growth in Pekalongan City has increased urban density to 7,001 people/km2 in 2022, intensifying residential land demand and accelerating land conversion. This study aims to assess the carrying capacity and capacity of residential land while forecasting future settlement expansion using Cellular Automata (CA) simulations. The research employs a rationalistic and spatial quantitative approach, integrating GIS-based analysis techniques. Results indicate that Pekalongan City's settlement carrying capacity remains sufficient until 2044, with a CCS value exceeding 1 and an estimated residential land requirement of 132.89 hectares. Available land for new residential areas stands at 1,486.66 hectares. CA simulation projects settlement expansion predominantly in South and East Pekalongan, with a preference for sub-districts with higher land availability. The study provides insights for sustainable urban planning, emphasizing proactive land-use policies to balance residential development and environmental sustainability.